Week of 27th April 2008, S&P500 and Soybean

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Stock Index Corner: S&P 500 Daily

S&P 500:

The trend of major Indices continued upward momentum since last week. The 50% retracement of 1416 should be watched very closely. This level seems to coincide with the declining 200 DMA (not shown in chart). So do watch this closely. I also believe this level will be reached as the financial stocks like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup are doing well in its current uptrend move. So this will provide good support for the overall markets.

Outlook:

Big Picture: (monthly): Bullish, and turned Bullish since last week (Monthly MACD turned positive)

Medium term (weekly): Sideway to Bullish (Power Indicator may go higher than previous week's)

Short term (daily): Sideway to Bullish

Fundamental:
Volatility will continue this week cause of Fed meetings and earnings updates.

Major World Indexes

Medium term trend: UK FTSE (UP), Nikkei (UP), Australian ASX (Sideways-UP), Shanghai FXI (UP)

Commodity Corner: Soybean

Technical: The daily pattern appears topish for Soybean. It has reteraced to 50% of the the siginficant top on March 3rd and April 1st this year. Also Double Top formation is forming. So it is quite highly the short term down move will pursue.

Fundamental:
On April 9, 2008, the USDA raised its estimate of 2007-2008 ending stocks from 140 to 160 million bushels, down from 574 million bushels in 2006-2007. The resulting 2008 ending stocks to use ratio is 5%, the lowest in four years. Worldwide, the USDA estimated that 2007-2008 ending stocks will drop from 63 to 49 million tons or 21% of annual use. Brazil and Argentina's soybean crops are only expected to increase slightly in 2008. In 2007-2008, the USDA expects exports to be down 4% and so far, they are down 3% from a year ago.

Trading ideas : (please do your own research and apply your profit/ stops management rules in all trades, please note except options writing, all the other trades may last just several days)

Non Directional Stratgy:

Writing Options: Emini S&P 500 OTM Puts, Soybean Calls
Directional Strategy (leveraged):

Futures: Short Soybean

Stock Options: Long GS calls, Long C Calls, Long AApl Calls.