Week of Sep 10th, Nikkei & Crude Oil

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Stock Index Corner:Nikkei

Nikkei index has risen for 7 weeks in a row and the bullish tone seemed subdued las tweek. The Bearish reversal pattern is being formed and may trend down for the next several weeks if confirmed by the lower trend in the next few days. So do watch out closely.

The Nikkei is still correlating closely with other major markets like the S&P, Nasdaq and FTSE. So i would expect similar trend for these markets as well.

The likely next support for NK Dec: 15490

S&P500:
Big Picture: (monthly)... Back to Bearish ..(Monthly MACD turns down)
Medium term (weekly): Sideways to Bearish
Short term (daily): Sideways to Bearish

Weekly MACD: FTSE (1st market to move Down- bearish), SPX Nikkei, ASX - still UP (but may likely follow FTSE in the coming week)

Commodities Corner: Crude Oil

Fundamental: (Source: CRB)
Front-month crude futures oil prices have extended the 1-1/2 month sell-off to a total of $11 per barrel, posting a new 5-month low. Bearish factors include (1) the lack of progress at the UN Security Council on pressuring Iran to halt its nuclear program (which reduces the chances of an oil backlash by Iran), (2) the recent news that Chevron and its partners are optimistic about having found a new huge source of oil in the deep waters in the Gulf of Mexico (although it will take several years to fully develop), (3) the end of the US summer driving season, (4) the quiet US hurricane season thus far, and (5) plentiful US crude oil inventories and adequate US
gasoline inventories. The latest DOE weekly inventory report was bearish with a sharp 3.1 million rise in distillate inventories.

Technicals:
Quarterly Chart chart (above) shows sharp bearish reversal downtrend driven by poor fundamentals and next possible support is 59-60 (CL Oct Futuers)


Trading ideas : (please apply your risk management rules in all trades)
Writing Options: Crude Oil OTM Calls
Futures: Short Live Cattle, Short Lean Hog
Stock Options: SLB (long puts), Qcom (long puts)