Week of 13 April, 2008. S&P 500 & Coffee

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Stock Index Corner: S&P 500

S&P500:

The S&P 500 daily has briefly passed the resistance at 1386 last week and since then it was bear's glory all week long ! The weekly bearish reversal does not look good for Bulls in the coming weeks. The monthly chart of this week shows a possible shooting star, a significant reversal pattern.

If the support 1260 is broken, then 1170 would be next major support based on 50% retracement of the major trend.

Big Picture: (monthly): Bearish

Medium term (weekly): Sideway to Bearish (Power Indicator may go lower than previous week's)

Short term (daily): Sideway to Bearish

Fundamental:
There will be a big number of earnings annoucement coming up this week and this may increase volaitiltty of the market. Large cap companies like IBM, Citicorp, Google, and Intel will make earnings updates. Itwill be interesting to see how market react to the mews at this juncture.

Major World Indexes

Medium term trend: UK FTSE (Down), Nikkei (Sideways), Australian ASX (Sideways-Down), Shanghai FXI (down)

Commodity Corner: Coffee

Technical: The daily pattern shows likely downtrend for Coffee for the next few days after a strong up trend retracement.

Fundamental:
On December 7, 2007, the USDA estimated 2007-2008 world coffee production at 122.9 million (60 kg) bags with implied use of 126.9 million bags. That puts 2007-2008 ending coffee stocks at 18.3 million bags, or 14% of annual use, the lowest ending stocks since 1961. Brazil's crop was pegged at 37.6 million bags.

Of course, now the market is focused on the next world crop. On April 8, 2008, the government of Brazil predicted their next coffee crop would total 44.2 million (60 kg) bags... much less than most analysts believe. On November 8, 2007, Louis Dreyfus Commodities predicted that Brazil will grow a 50 million-bags of coffee in 2008-2009. A dry fall affected Brazil's flowering stage and added uncertainty to the upcoming numbers.

Note: the above fundamentals are exerpts of dailyfutures.com

Trading ideas : (please do your own research and apply your profit/ stops management rules in all trades, please note except options writing, all the other trades may last just several days)

Writing Options: Emini S&P 500 OTM Calls, Gold, Soybean OTM Calls
Futures: Short Coffee

Stock Options: Long GS puts,. Long Goog Puts