Week of Sep 24th, Nasdaq and Orange Juice

click to enlarge

Stock Index Corner: Nasdaq 100, the chart above showed that last Thursday hit the Op and 0.618 fib node. There is now a high possibility for the down move in the subsequent weeks if the weakness persist. The Sep month is ending and comes Oct. The Oct month has also been the best month according to the Almanac. My view is that the seasonal pattern may have shifted in the last 2 months where Sep was supposed to be one of the worst month of the year but did not happen. So, Oct may bear the "pressure" this year....we'll see..

S&P500:Big Picture: (monthly)... Potential major Turning Point this month to the downside..
Medium term (weekly): Sideways to downside
Short term (daily): May move to the down side (look for lower high)
Weekly MACD: FTSE, Nikkei, ASX - DOWN (Bearish), SPX/ Nasdaq still UP (but watch closely as it has almost reached the May high (resistance) this year.

Commodities Corner: Orange Juice

Fundamental: (Source: CRB) Nov orange juice prices have faded for the
past 4 weeks as 3 successive hurricanes have turned north near Bermuda
and have not even approached Florida. The market is looking
for another small Florida harvest in 2006-07 due to the 2-years of
hurricane damage to trees, the spread of citrus canker and greening
disease in Florida, and urban sprawl. The USDA on Oct 12 will
release its first official estimate of the 2006-07 season, with the
Florida crop expected to be in the 140-150 mln box area, which
would be little changed from the poor crops seen in the last 2 years.
Large specs still had a large long position of 12,462 as of Sep 12
(42% of OI).


Technical: Weakness in OJ is seen on the daily and weekly, high possibility of continued downtrend in the coming weeks...near term support: 159.0

Trading ideas : (please apply your profit/ risk management rules in all trades, please note except options writing, all the other trades may last just several days)

Writing Options: Orange Juice OTM Calls
Futures: Short OJ
Options: NVDA (long puts)